Kuva ROI Calculator v5.9
Annual savings by value driver bridge
Top value drivers are shown as a bridge to total annual savings. Smaller drivers are grouped into Other to avoid scale distortion.
Cumulative value creation waterfall
Shows how major value categories build up to total annual savings before first-year program cost is subtracted.
Scenario sensitivity
Sensitivity uses the workbook’s Conservative / Expected / Aggressive multipliers against the current annual savings and first-year program cost.
Executive summary
Core message: Kuva turns methane monitoring from a compliance checkbox into an operational value engine: fewer avoidable trips, faster root cause, shorter emissions duration, and stronger defensibility.
The MAC view uses editable CH₄ reductions and the methane GWP input to calculate tCO₂e. Product value, CO₂e value, truck-roll cost, labor rates, and soft-benefit haircut now flow from the Inputs page.
Assumptions
Use Case Model
Annual savings = Events × Effective Cost (Cost Metric × Probability), plus recovered gas value and optional CO₂e value. Soft rows also apply the soft-benefit haircut from Inputs. Gas price and labor rates are set on the Inputs page.
How the portfolio comparison works
Each initiative's Value / tCO₂e score divides its estimated annual value created by its annual emissions reduced (tCO₂e/yr) — a higher number means more dollar value delivered per tonne of methane abated, and is the basis for ranking in the table and the Portfolio comparison chart below. The Kuva Monitoring row is calculated automatically from the ROI model (total annual savings ÷ current avoided tCO₂e, using the use-case CH₄ reduction and Methane GWP inputs from the Inputs tab). All other rows are editable placeholders — replace them with customer- or portfolio-specific annual value and emissions figures to benchmark Kuva against pneumatic replacement, VRU optimization, tank controls, compressor upgrades, electrification, or other capital projects. The marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve further down follows the classic McKinsey & Company format: initiatives are ordered along the x-axis from lowest to highest marginal cost, each bar's width reflects its emissions reduction (tCO₂e/yr), and each bar's height reflects its cost per tonne — below zero is value-positive and favorable, above zero is a net cost and less favorable.
MAC-style abatement curve
Negative $/tCO₂e means value-positive abatement. Program cost is allocated by each driver’s share of value.
Portfolio comparison
Initiative marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve
Modeled on the classic McKinsey & Company abatement cost curve: measures are ordered left-to-right along the x-axis from lowest to highest marginal cost. Each bar's width represents that initiative's estimated emissions reduction (tCO₂e/yr); each bar's height represents its marginal abatement cost ($/tCO₂e — the cost of reducing one more tonne). Bars below the zero line are value-positive / most favorable (the value created more than offsets the cost); bars above zero represent a net cost per tonne and are less favorable.
Initiative MAC portfolio
Non-Kuva rows are editable placeholders for customer-specific annual value and emissions reduced. Sources: EPA OOOOb Final Rule RIA (Dec 2023) · IEA Methane Tracker (2023) gas value recovery models · EDF Permian Basin studies — average leak rate 0.9% of gross throughput · ICF "Economic Analysis of Methane Emission Reductions" (2014, updated 2022) · MiQ Standard v5.0 / Xpansiv CBL methane intensity premium range 2022–2023 · EPA Natural Gas STAR compressor rod packing emission factors (avg 85 scf/hr)
Rental vs Purchase ROI summary
First-year ROI uses Year 1 benefit and Year 1 cost. Term ROI uses discounted NPV benefits and costs across the selected term.
Cumulative value over time
Shows cumulative net value by year for rental and purchase using the current ROI model and ownership assumptions.
Annual cash-flow view
Ownership assumptions
These are user-editable fields from the Inputs tab. Change them there or use the inputs below.
Summary report not generated yet
Click Create Summary to generate an executive-ready report from the current ROI model.
ROI Calculator — User Guide
Contents
What this tool does
The Kuva ROI Calculator is a self-contained, browser-based financial model. It takes program inputs — pricing, site count, commodity prices, labor rates — and combines them with a configurable library of value drivers to produce a defensible annual ROI, a MAC/portfolio comparison, and a multi-year NPV comparison between renting and purchasing equipment.
Everything runs locally in the browser. There is no server, no login, and no data sent anywhere. All state is stored in browser localStorage, so values persist between sessions on the same device.
What it answers
What is the expected annual value of a Kuva program? How long until payback? Is renting or buying better over the analysis term? How does Kuva compare to other abatement investments?
What it does not do
It does not pull live data. Gas prices, event counts, and probabilities are assumptions — the model is only as good as the inputs you provide.
Audience
Internal sales reviews, customer discovery sessions, executive briefings, and procurement conversations.
Output
A printable Summary Report with KPIs, sensitivity table, value waterfall, and full assumptions — formatted for stakeholder sharing.
Getting started
Open the .html file in any modern browser (Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Safari). No installation required.
Recommended first-run sequence
- Enter the customer name in the Account / Customer field in the header.
- Go to the Inputs tab and adjust pricing, site count, and commodity assumptions to match the account.
- Go to Use Case Model and tune the value drivers relevant to the customer's operations — adjust Events, Probability, and Cost Metric per row.
- Review the Dashboard to confirm outputs make sense.
- Use MAC / Portfolio to benchmark Kuva against other abatement options if relevant.
- Open Rental vs Purchase NPV if a procurement decision is in scope.
- Click ▶ Create Summary on the Summary Report tab to generate a shareable report.
- Click Save as New Defaults to lock in your starting point for this account or territory.
The seven tabs
Data flows from Inputs and Use Case Model into all other tabs. Changes update every tab instantly — there is no recalculate button.
Dashboard
The primary view. Shows KPI cards (Total annual savings, First-year program cost, Net value, First-year ROI multiple, Payback period, Hard vs Soft split), a value waterfall by category, and a scenario sensitivity table. View-only — no inputs live here.
Inputs
The single source of truth for all pricing, rate, and commodity assumptions. Every value here is referenced by the Use Case Model and NPV analysis. Edit directly in the table cells.
| Section | Key Assumptions | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | Kuva monthly cost per site | $1,500/site/mo | Rental price. Used in program cost and NPV rental cost. |
| Commercial | Sites covered | 1 | Scales all revenue and cost figures linearly. Always set this first. |
| Commercial | Installation / setup cost per site | $3,000/site | One-time. Included in first-year cost. |
| Commodity | Natural gas price | $3.50/MMBtu | Used to value recovered methane for leak and flare drivers. |
| Commodity | Methane / gas conversion factor | 0.052 Mcf/kg | Converts CH₄ kg to Mcf for gas pricing. Standard industry value. |
| Labor | Technician labor rate | $125/hr | Burdened (fully loaded) rate. |
| Labor | Engineer / emissions specialist rate | $175/hr | Burdened rate. Used in root cause and contractor drivers. |
| Operations | Default truck roll cost | $950/trip | Vehicle + drive time + labor. |
| Control | Scenario multipliers | 0.5× / 1.0× / 1.5× | Conservative / Expected / Aggressive. Scales total savings only, not costs. |
| Control | Soft-benefit confidence haircut | 0.50× | Applied to all Soft rows after the base calculation. Set to 1.0 to disable. |
| Emissions | Methane GWP | 28 CO₂e/CH₄ | 100-year GWP (IPCC AR5). Change to 80 for 20-year GWP if required. |
| Carbon | CO₂e value per tonne | $0/tCO₂e | Defaults to $0. Set only if the customer has an active carbon price or fee exposure. |
| Carbon | Carbon value confidence | 1.00× | Additional weighting on carbon value. Use <1 if carbon pricing is uncertain. |
| Ownership | NPV analysis term | 5 years | Term for the Rental vs Purchase NPV comparison. All "-year" labels update automatically. |
| Ownership | Discount rate / WACC | 10% | Enter as decimal (0.10 = 10%). Time value of money for NPV. |
| Ownership | Purchase price per site | $45,000/site | One-time capital outlay paid in Year 1. |
| Ownership | Annual service / SLA cost per site | $3,600/site/yr | Ongoing support, data, and SLA fees after purchase. |
| Ownership | Purchase residual value | 10% | Fraction of purchase price recovered at end of analysis term. |
Use Case Model
Where individual value drivers are defined and tuned. Each row represents one type of value the Kuva program can generate. The tool ships with 19 pre-loaded drivers across four categories.
Columns
- Category — Hard Dollar, Risk Avoidance, Strategic, or Operational. Used for waterfall grouping on the Dashboard.
- Value Driver — Name of the driver. Three driver names trigger automatic cost lookup: names containing "truck roll" use the truck roll rate from Inputs; "faster root cause" uses 4 hrs engineer + 2 hrs technician; "reduced contractor dependence" uses 8 hrs each. All other rows use the Cost Metric column directly.
- Events — How many times per year this event is expected to occur.
- Probability (0.1–1) — Likelihood that Kuva captures or prevents the event. Also used directly in the cost calculation — it is baked into the Effective Cost column.
- Cost Metric ($) — Dollar value per event before probability weighting.
- Effective Cost (×Prob) — Read-only.
Cost Metric × Probability. This is the per-event value used in the savings calculation. - Hard/Soft — Hard = auditable, directly tied to cost or revenue. Soft = strategic or risk-based, subject to the soft-benefit haircut from Inputs.
- CH₄ kg/yr — Annual methane volume for this driver. Used to calculate recovered gas value and optional CO₂e value.
- CO₂e Value — Read-only. Calculated carbon value based on CH₄ kg, GWP, CO₂e price, and confidence from Inputs.
- Annual Benefit ($) — Read-only. Total annual value for this row. See Section 4 for the exact formula.
MAC / Portfolio
Benchmarks Kuva against other abatement initiatives using a McKinsey-style Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curve. The Kuva Monitoring row is calculated automatically from the ROI model — total annual savings ÷ avoided tCO₂e. All other rows (pneumatic replacement, VRU optimization, tank controls, compressor upgrades, etc.) are editable placeholders for customer- or portfolio-specific values.
The chart orders initiatives from lowest to highest marginal cost. Width = emissions reduction (tCO₂e/yr). Height = cost per tonne. Bars below zero are value-positive — cost of abatement is more than offset by value created.
ROI Story
A summary view showing Hard dollar savings, Soft/risk-weighted savings, and total avoided emissions alongside a snapshot table of value drivers ranked by contribution. Useful for a narrative-style customer presentation where you want to walk through the value story category by category before showing full detail.
Rental vs Purchase NPV
Compares renting vs purchasing equipment over the analysis term. Shows NPV of benefits, NPV of costs under each model, net NPV, ROI multiple, ROI%, and payback. The "Better option" KPI card highlights which model produces the higher net NPV. See Section 5 for how NPV is calculated.
Summary Report
Generates a formatted, print-ready report including account name, generation date, executive takeaway, KPI table, sensitivity analysis, top value drivers, value waterfall, and a full assumptions table.
- ▶ Generate Report — builds the report from current model state
- ↺ Refresh — re-runs after input changes
- 🖨 Print / PDF — use browser Print → Save as PDF; set margins to Minimum and enable background graphics
- 📋 Copy HTML — copies report markup for embedding elsewhere
How savings are calculated
Each use case row produces an annual savings figure. The three components — base operational value, recovered gas value, and optional CO₂e value — are summed, then a soft-benefit haircut is applied to Soft rows.
Effective Cost column
The Effective Cost column shows Cost Metric × Probability for each row. This is the probability-weighted per-event value used in the base calculation. It is read-only and updates automatically as you change Cost Metric or Probability.
Driver name overrides
Three driver names trigger automatic cost calculation instead of using Cost Metric directly:
- Contains "truck roll" → uses Default Truck Roll Cost from Inputs
- Contains "faster root cause" → Engineer rate × 4 hrs + Technician rate × 2 hrs
- Contains "reduced contractor dependence" → Engineer rate × 8 hrs + Technician rate × 8 hrs
Total annual savings
How NPV is calculated
Net Present Value adjusts future cash flows to today's dollars using a discount rate (WACC). This accounts for the time value of money — a dollar saved next year is worth less than a dollar saved today.
How carbon value is calculated
Carbon value is optional and defaults to $0 unless you set a CO₂e price per tonne in Inputs. It monetizes methane emissions avoided by the Kuva program.
Scope control
The "Apply carbon value to" setting in Inputs controls which rows receive carbon value: All (every row with CH₄ kg), Hard only, or Soft only.
Typical carbon price inputs
| Scenario | CO₂e Price | GWP | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| No carbon price (default) | $0 | 28 | 1.0 |
| Voluntary market (VCM) | $15–$25 | 28 | 0.75 |
| IRA methane fee risk | $900–$1,500 | 28 | 0.25–0.50 |
| Compliance (EU ETS) | $60–$80 | 28 | 1.0 |
Scenarios: Conservative, Expected, Aggressive
Scenarios apply a multiplier to Total Annual Savings. They do not change costs. Multipliers are editable in the Control section of Inputs.
| Scenario | Default Multiplier | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.50× | Pessimistic. Low event rates, lower probability realization. Good for budget-constrained customers. |
| Expected ✓ | 1.00× | Base case. Reflects the model as entered. Primary number for all customer conversations. |
| Aggressive | 1.50× | Upside. Higher event or capture rates. Show the ceiling, not the baseline. |
Saving, exporting, and resetting
Every edit auto-saves to localStorage. The timestamp in the header shows when you last saved. Values persist between sessions on the same machine and browser.
| Button | What it does | Recoverable? |
|---|---|---|
| Save as New Defaults | Stores current values as your default starting state. "Preset Defaults" loads these going forward. | Yes — export JSON first |
| Save Preset | Saves a named snapshot to localStorage. One slot — overwrites previous. | One slot available |
| Load Preset | Restores the most recently saved preset. | Replaces current state |
| Preset Defaults | Loads your saved defaults, or factory defaults if none saved. | Replaces current state |
| Reset to Zero | Clears all use case row values to zero. Inputs not affected. | No undo — export first |
| Export JSON | Downloads complete model state (inputs + use cases). Can be reloaded. | — |
| Export Inputs CSV | Downloads all Inputs tab assumptions as CSV. | — |
| Export Use Cases CSV | Downloads the Use Case Model table as CSV. | — |
Tips for customer-facing use
Before the meeting
- Pre-load the account's site count, known gas price, and confirmed use cases.
- Zero out drivers not relevant to this customer's operations.
- Set CO₂e price to $0 unless the customer has an active carbon program or fee exposure.
- Export JSON as a backup before going live.
During the meeting
- Work from the Expected scenario. Introduce Conservative/Aggressive only if asked.
- Use Probability as a live dial — lower it in real time if the customer pushes back on a use case.
- The Dashboard waterfall shows which categories drive the most value — let the customer react to the breakdown.
- Use MAC / Portfolio to show how Kuva compares to capital-intensive abatement options.
- For OpEx vs CapEx conversations, switch to Rental vs Purchase NPV and walk through net NPV side by side.
After the meeting
- Generate the Summary Report and save as PDF for the follow-up email.
- Export JSON and store it with the account record — it is a full audit trail of the assumptions used.
- Use Save as New Defaults if this account's profile should become your go-forward starting point for similar accounts.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Leaving CO₂e price non-zero when the customer has no carbon program — it inflates numbers in ways that are hard to defend.
- Leaving all 19 use cases at full default values — tune to the specific account before presenting.
- Not adjusting site count — the model scales linearly. A 10-site customer entered as 1 site produces a 10× underestimate.
- Confusing Probability with event frequency — Probability is your estimate of how often Kuva successfully captures or prevents the event, not whether the event happens at all.